The gubernatorial race in Adamawa has always been a keen contest defined by the complexities and heterogeneity of its diverse people with religion and ethnicity often a key determinant of its outcomes. LIVINUS MENEDI, in Yola, reports on the intrigues that have trailed the contest so far.
With the party candidates contesting the forthcoming gubernatorial elections now settled, the die is now cast. The contest for the Adamawa Dougirei Government House appears to be among the more ebullient candidates of the political parties going by the lineup.
Senator Bindow Mohammed Umar Jibrilla is the flagbearer of the All Progressive Congress, APC, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, who contested the 2011 elections as the presidential candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria, CAN, now flies the banner of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. Also, we have Dr. Ahmed Modibbo, a former Executive Secretary of Universal Basic Education Commission who defected from the PDP to contest the gubernatorial elections under the banner of the Peoples Democratic Movement, PDM, and Mr. Markus Gundiri under the Social Democratic Party, SDP. Many had though that this would be a two horse race between the candidates of the two dominant political parties in the state until the outcome of the PDP primaries changed the political configuration.
But while the APC held a free and fair primaries devoid of rancor at the Lamido Cinema Hall in Yola the Adamawa State capital where Senator Jibrilla, currently the Vice Chairman Senate Committee on Defence and Security, representing Adamawa Northern Senatorial district emerged the party’s flagbearer, the PDP’s version generated a lot of bad blood with Ribadu’s emergence.
Indeed, the PDP primaries, which produced the flag bearers for all elective offices including Mallam Nuhu Ribadu was held outside the state following the decision of the National leadership of the PDP citing security concerns to shift the venue of the primaries to Eagle Square in Abuja.
In the wake of the controversial primaries, stakeholders within the party became at daggers drawn with the national leadership of the party for foisting an anointed candidate on them Amid the bickering, the likes of Markus Gundiri, a runner up of the 2012 gubernatorial elections in the state, who had contested against the then incumbent governor, Vice Admiral Murtala Nyako (rtd) under the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, CAN, and Dr. Ahmed Modibbo left the PDP to contest under gubernatorial elections under the SDP and PDM respectively.
That episode, which marked the climax of an intra-party feud, stirred a gale of defections within the PDP fold that still continues to threaten the electoral chances of the PDP, even though it appears the party of late has been recovering from the shock of that era as some party stakeholders who have become indifferent towards the PDP are retracing their steps.
The effect of the controversial PDP primaries on the forth-coming Adamawa governorship contest is the fact that the polls initially thought to be between Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the PDP and Senator Bindow Jibrilla has all of a sudden turned into a four horse race following the defection of Gundiri and Modibbo into Social Democratic Party and Peoples democratic Movement respectively to protest the controversial PDP primaries.
Political pundits are of the view that the fallout of the PDP party primaries, which for the first time in the country’s chequered political history excluded the incumbent governor Barrister Bala Nggillari, without the benefit of a level playing ground offered by the party, to stage manage a primaries that was clearly skewed to get the intended outcome obviously portends grave dangers for the fortunes of the party in the state.
RIbadu’s candidature imperiled
What is compounding Adamawa PDP woes is the fact that the party appears to riled against itself as most of the disaffected stakeholders have rejected the candidature of Mallam Nuhu Ribadu. Those who have threatened to seek alternative platforms if the party continues to be adamant about the choice of Ribadu, whom they alleged has been imposed on them from “Abuja” have followed through with their threat by leaving the party for other platforms. The others, who are still in the party are perhaps only there physically but their souls have since parted with the party, and if what is being said in hushed voices is anything to go by many of the party members who have decided to stay are doing so with the understanding to stay but never to vote for the party on the D-day.
Recent reports from the grapevine indicated such apprehension exited in Mallam Nuhu Ribadu’s camp and this had consequently forced him to seek the help of Abuja.
It was reliably gathered that Ribadu, gauging the lack of support by stakeholders of the party for his candidature had cause to approach the Presidency to intervene over the issue to save him and the party from its imminent defeat. Perhaps underscoring those fears by Ribadu’s loyalist is the need to look for a fall guy, as just already fingers are being pointed at the direction of the state governor – as reason dtre for the defeat
Recent development within the state hints of this apprehension, especially the allegations against the being made against Mr. Nggillari that he his tacitly working for the victory of the candidate of the SDP Mr. Markus Gundiri.
This insinuations although vehemently dismissed by Nggillari has nonetheless refused to abate but instead has continued to cast a fore shadow of things to expect as well as expand the scope of political chicanery within the PDP. Apprehension within the party that the governor Bala James Ngillari may have to be eased out office, anytime soon by re-instating the speaker of the state Assembly Alhaji Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri back to the seat of governance using his appeal case to perfect the plot has only served to put the party at a crossroads. The danger of such legal fiasco, political pundits have cautioned, is that the PDP risk losing the loyalty of the embattled.
Fintiri, who had assumed the position of acting governor of the state following the impeachment of Governor Murtala Nyako and resignation of his deputy Bala James Nggillari in controversial circumstances, was sacked as the state acting governor after 86 days in that position through a Federal High ruling.
Keen watchers of political development in the state are quick to point that at the hurdle before the party.
Some of prominent figures among them Sen. Abubakar Girei and Alhaji Abubakar Kari Abdullahi have warned that the party risks defeat, observing that the situation will most likely cause a collateral damage on the re-election bid of President Jonathan in the state except the root cause of the crisis within the party are resolved amicably.
They also rued the defection of Gundiri and Dr. Modibbo, observing that the loss of both men from the party might turnaround to hurt the party in the forthcoming gubernatorial polls slated for 11th April, 2015 since both men command substantial political followership in the state.
However, Ribadu appears to enjoy a strong following from elements within the opposition APC in the state with strong affinity to former governor Murtala Nyako who it appears may break ranks with their party to vote Mallam Nuhu Ribadu as governor rather than the APC party’s flagbearer Senator Bindow. Nyako who still enjoys a cult-like following amongst major supporters of the APC is believed to have shown a marked preference for the candidature of Ribadu to governor the state instead of Senator Bindow his political godson.
But Ribadu’s major concern however still remains the members of his immediate political association within the PDP. Will they overlook the mistreatment meted to them and genuinely accept his candidature? The Presidency it was gathered had called Gundiri and other stakeholders to try to mediate on the matter but the stakeholders insistence that the primaries, which produced Ribadu be jettisoned and a fresh primaries be conducted in the state has remained a major grounds of the disagreement.
That is however not to discount the key role being played by Hassan Tukur, the principal private secretary to President Goodluck Jonathan, who is allegedly behind the maneuverings to impose Ribadu as the PDP governorship candidate for Adamawa. Moreso he and President Goodluck consider the demands of the Adamawa stakeholders as being antithetical to their desires for its people.
Senator Bindow and danger lurking in the corner for the APC
As with the PDP, there are ominous clouds gathering over the APC, if its leaders fail to nip in the bud the division plaguing the party on ethnic fault lines.
Senator Bindow Umar Jibrilla may not match Mallam Ribadu’s credentials and records but what he lacks in appellation,n he has in overwhelming support for his candidature within his party ranks. It was such popular support within his party ranks, which propelled him coupled with support he enjoys among Nyako’s camp within the APC that ensured his defeat of Alh. Ibrahim Yayaji Mijinyawa, the candidate allegedly being backed by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, for the party ticket.
While Mallam Ribadu will require deft political manouvering to placate attempts by stakeholders within the PDP who have allegedly conspired to ensure his defeat at the polls are wooed back into supporting his candidature his arch rival at the polls, Bindow may not have much of such qualms but only has to prime himself to accommodate some of the disaffected PDP members who may be jumping into his political bandwagon while angling for the spoil that may come along with APC’s success at the polls
This much has already started manifesting with the recent decamping of a former Speaker of the Adamawa State House of Assembly and one time acting governor of the state Hon. James Barka, who left the PDP for the APC. Barka, who resigned his portfolio as Nigeria’s ambassador to Tanzania to contest for the National Assembly ticket under the PDP, said he was leaving the PDP for the APC not to contest any elections on principle because he saw justice, fairness truth and equality in the APC ideals which he claimed was lacking in his former party he described as “party of betrayals and tyrants”. James Barka had lost out in his bid to secure the House of Representative ticket to represent Hong and Gombi federal constituencies at the National Assembly, this is even after he had scaled down from his initial ambition of governing the state under the PDP platform for last year’s botched governorship bye-election.
But for all of Bindow’s affluence, he still owes much of his political prominence and clout to former Governor Murtala Nyako, who brought him to political limelight.
Nyako ensured Bindow who then, was a little known son of a philanthropist and business tycoon was brought under the platform of the PDP to contest Adamawa Northern senatorial district against former Governor Boni Haruna, who was in the ACN and won.
Dr. Ahmed Modibbo
Modibbo, who left the PDP along with his wife, Engineer Aishatu Binani to actualize their political aspirations under the PDM platform command a substantial followership in the state. He is a former executive secretary of the universal Basic Education Board and his candidature resonates well within his native Fulani political base. He goes into the gubernatorial elections currying the trust of and goodwill and backing of prominent elites from the non-Fulani ethnic tribes in the state because of his convictions and philosophy of not being a “captive of his race” but rather an ideologue, who believes people should run for elective office not on the basis of their race or creed, but on their convictions that they can help bring really change to the polity and affect lives. He has built political bridges and identified with the down trodden with his free bus shuttles for internally displaced persons, who want to return to their home towns in Mubi, Maiha and other nearby villages retaken by the military in its war against dreaded Boko Haram sect after it captured several towns and villages particularly in the Northern part of the state.
Moddibo’s defection to the PDM may have robbed Ribadu of a vital political asset not to discount the fact that it posed grave danger for both Ribadu and Senator Bindow because of the potential threat of his candidature to undercut their political base. Another of Modibbo’s greatest assest beside his huge financial war chest, which he can deploy for the election, is his affability to other minority groups in the state that cast him as being more moderate comparative to Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and Senator Bindow.
Markus Gundiri
Gundiri still enjoys the sympathy of the people who believe he was their “undeclared governor” post 2012 guber elections when he ran under the banner of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria against the former Governor Murtala Nyako, the then incumbent. Gundiri, who enjoys a large followership from the diverse ethnic nationalities in the state, will be hoping that his mantra for change in the 2012 polls will still resonate with the people in the 2015 governorship elections. Gundiri, who bowed to pressure from his constituent to contest the 2015 governorship elections following the failure of the PDP which he defected into some months back to join from the APC, to offer he and other contestants a eve playing ground to participate in the party primaries held in Abuja.
Gundiri, a water engineer who rose up to become the Director of Dams with the Federal Ministry of Water resources before his retirement to join politics having variously supervised key government infrastructural interventions says he is running for the office of the governor to transform the state and ensure that the common wealth of the state, which has been so inequitably distributed in the last 24 years is channeled into development of critical infrastructure that will generate wealth for all its people. If Gundiri’s constituent made up of the diverse ethnic nationalities in the state with their even spread in all the 21 local government areas of the state can honestly commit to his quest under his new party the Social Democratic Party, pundits say with a more altruistic disposition from his support base the party can post convincing victories in at least 13 local councils out of the 21 local government council areas of the state.
Indeed, his chances of emerging the winner of the Adamawa governorship elections are bright. He could be the run-away winner of the contest par-adventure the smoldering flames of schism within APC conflagrates the party and leaves its members torn between siding with the party or going with their emotions. However, even that would still be dependent on the neutrality of the incumbent Governor Bala James Nggillari’s.
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